It’s been said that “statistics are for losers.” And since the Razorback basketball team had a 2-6 (and, therefore, losing) conference road record this season, I felt like it was time to break out a few statistics.
Our story starts with fouls. Does that seem strange to you? Yeah…me too. The Hogs foul 20.5 times a game on the road, and 18.1 fouls per game at home. Opponents foul 19.6 times a game when they visit Bud Walton Arena, and only 15.8 times per game at home.
So there you go…blame the officiating, right? Except I don’t think it’s the officiating. So let’s continue.
The Hogs assist rate drops from 58.3% at home to 49.8% on the road. Their free throw rate drops from 27% at home to 18.9% on the road.
Turnover percentage? Only slightly higher on the road. Possessions? Arkansas averages three more possessions per game at home.
Shooting? Based on effective field goal percentage, at home Arkansas outshoots their opponents 52.7% to 45.2%. On the road, they shoot better than their opponents by a 50.3% to 48.5% margin.
Rebounding? On the road, the Hogs get outrebounded by just over three a game. At home, the Hogs have an almost five rebound per game advantage.
Scoring? At home, Arkansas has won the first half by an average of 11 points in conference play, 40-29. On the road, they’ve lost the first half by just over 2 points — 34-32. The Hogs lose the second half by an average of one point at home and two points on the road. So scoring from the second half of conference games is basically a wash.
This is pretty easy to figure out: the Hogs play more aggressive at home than on the road. I know…”Duh!”
The answer on the road isn’t just to play harder. The answer is to play more aggressive from the outset. The fast starts at home are because of a focused intensity and quicker pace of play. And those two things lead to better passing and more scoring.
A tentative team will get more fouls called on them, have fewer assists, and get to the free throw line less often — which translates into less fouls for the opponent.
You can physically dominate people when you are playing ‘stand-off’ basketball. In their remaining post-season games, this team needs to get up and down the floor early and often.
I’d rather lose playing ‘getting after it’ than the way we’ve been losing on the road this season.
Unfortunately, the stats back up the personality of this team, or should I say most of it's members. I still say Weems, Beverley and Townes are the only 3 players on this team that fit into Pelphrey's system, but I'm starting to believe Welsh probably deserves to be mentioned in that group with the way he's progressed this year. It'll be interesting to see just exactly where he fit's in next year, with the Fresh. guards we have coming in. To say the Seniors, with the exception of Weems and Townes, are underachievers, would be an understatement. Steven Hill, Charles Thomas, and Vincent Hunter are lousey exscuses for offensive production. Hill never developed a shot within the paint. Thomas never learned that he wasn't a PG 10 feet from the basket, and Hunter, even though he was recruited by Heath as a center, has only showed that he's the most productive when shooting the 3 in most games. Irvin has speed, but doesn't have the athletic ability or ball-handling skills of a Lee Mayberry. What make's things worse, is when this work's against him, he doesn't have the "basketball IQ" to make up for it either. The bottom line is we don't have the overall athletic ability or the brains to fit into Pelphrey's system. It's alway's either an ability issue, or they just can't be coached.
GonzoHog,
I agree with most of your analysis, but I have to say, if Townes brought his potential intensity every game instead of any game he feels like it, this team would be 2-3 games better. I agree, when he plays hard, he is a hoss, but he suffers from the same malaise most of the other seniors do.
I agree there's been some games he's looked lackidaisial, but something just makes me wonder if it might have something to do with his position. Unlike Weems, Townes has to rely on someone getting the ball to him about 95% of the time, so it make's me wonder if there's been some games where assist-wise, some of the other players weren't getting him the ball often enough to keep him in the flow of the game, creating frustration. That's probably a point that could be argued more than just a couple of ways. Who knows. This team has been more difficult to try and figure out than any jigsaw puzzle I've ever looked at. I hate to say this, but I'm really looking forward to these guys graduating.
I completely agree, it is time for them all to move on. Never has a team of guys been together for so long and improved to acheive so little. The entire program could use a dose of fresh air and fresh bodies.
I think if Pelphrey can bring in a bonafide PF into our program, a bruiser type……..6'7" to 6'9" 265 ish player ala Corliss, Alonzo Lane (remeber him), Big Baby Davis, that can get rebound like a monster. We'd be a force to reckon with, especially with the guards we got coming in!!!
Bacon Bits,
Your the first person to mention Alonzo Lane as a bonafied PF in a long time. When he came in as a freshman, he was billed as the next Corliss. At times during his first year, I thought he might become that. As his years at the UofA passed I think most of our opinions about him were changed to leave him off that list.
Don't get me wrong. I want someone big, powerful and mean to come here and get after it. I just don't consider AL to be in that catagory.
We don't have any bruisers coming in next year, but one thing need's to be understood; Corliss Williamson was a rare breed, so don't exspect to see another player like him wear a Razorback jersey in the future. That doesn't mean we won't have other great players though. Sanchez's redshirt come's off next season, and I fully exspect him to be an "up and comer". Also, the 2 Freshmen, bigmen we have coming in next season are very good athletes, with lots of range. Brandon Moore is a 6'8", 215 lb., PF that block's a lot of shots, and get's a lot of rebounds. He's played against some of the best competition in the country this year, a lot like Courtney Fortson has, and has held his own. I can't remember the kid's name, but I remember reading an article about Moore facing a team that heralded the #1 prospect, and PF in the 2009 class. Moore had somthing like 17 pts., 10 rebs., and 8 blocks, and the numbers of the #1 prospect were almost identical. From what I've heard, Moore's pretty much done that all season. The other bigman we're bringing in is Andre Clark. Clark is 6'10", 205, and is very quik and athletic. He was a late bloomer last year in the Spring, on his AAU squad, and that's probably the only reason why he wasn't listed as a bigtime recruit by recruiting services. He's built like a stringbean, but about 10 more pounds of muscle, and he'll basically be the same size Marcus Camby was in college. I think both of these guys fit into the Derek Hood kind of mold. Remember him?