May 23, 2013

Better To Be Lucky Than Good?

October 30, 2011 by

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.  Of course, you need to be pretty good to get to the point where luck can help you out.

Zac Stacy / Alfred Davis (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) The Hogs played just good enough at Vanderbilt to get lucky and win.  Having your opponent miss a chip shot field goal that would’ve sent the game into overtime is just lucky.  Take away the fumble and 95-yard touchdown return by Jerry Franklin and the Hogs get beat.

I expected another slow start for no other reason than the Hogs would put a lot of pressure on themselves (again) to “start fast.”  Too bad I wasn’t disappointed.

We saw the same things on defense that we have been seeing early in games.  Too anxious to hit.  Poor reading and reacting.  Running right out of their assignments to chase.  Lots of whiff tackles.

Again, we saw that the opponent’s offense had plays planned for our tendencies on defense.  Vandy’s TD pass on their first possession was a perfect example.  The 40-yard throwback pass (just prior to Franklin’s fumble return) was another.  It almost appears that the right formation and motion can trick the Hogs into playing a man/zone coverage combo.  That type of coverage usually doesn’t work out so well.

Although no one else in the stadium or watching on TV was fooled, the Hogs special teams got fooled on the fake punt.  Yard and a half to go, cover guys all on one side, short snap run to the other while the Razorback line apparently gave absolutely no thought of a fake or contain.  Outside end casually walked right out of the play towards the center of the field.

Speed — playing hard and fast — doesn’t do a lot of good if you just get to the wrong place quicker.

Tyler Wilson / Sean Richardson (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) The offense struggles in strange ways.  Except for…wait for it…wait…luck.  Tyler Wilson should’ve had two, if not four, interceptions.  Underthrowing or throwing late on the long patterns is now the norm, not the exception.  Garrick McGee was preaching to Wilson about this on the ESPN “Depth Chart” show.

No doubt Wilson is one tough dude.  Unfortunately, it seems he needs to get popped a few times and get mad before he really starts to play.  His reads and receiver choices early in the game were a bit questionable — another norm, not the exception — leading to him enjoying Coach Petrino screaming at him on the sidelines.

As for the offensive line, I stopped counting ‘look out!’ blocks early on, and took note that a few times guys came through untouched.  This offensive line is still very inconsistent.  Many times they just get physically beat.

If Wilson and the offensive line are going to continue to start games half-asleep, the offense is going to continue to sputter early.

While Vanderbilt did their best to physically beat up the Hogs, the challenge was more than accepted.  We could, however, do without the silly personal fouls.  Wade’s slamming the guy on the punt return was just a poor play all around.  Being proud of leveling someone totally defenseless wasn’t very impressive, to say the least.  Regarding personal fouls, a few weeks ago Coach Petrino said, “we’ve got that corrected.”  Need to chase that horse down again.

Speaking of coaches…they need to take a hard look in the mirror.  They’re not exactly ‘out-game-planning’ anyone right now.

This was a game the Hogs were lucky to win. While it’s great to only have one loss at this point in the season, this ‘really good team that spends so much time each game not being a really good team’ is beginning to wear on me.

Filed Under: Arkansas Razorbacks, Football Tagged With:
  • http://www.therazorbackblogger.com/ GonzoHog

    All very good points. The game planning does have me a bit perplexed. I just can’t seem to figure this team out right now.

    Take it easy on Marquel Wade though. He’s getting much more of a bad wrap on this than neccesary.

    Krouse never waved for a fair catch. He only brought his hand up to shield the sun from his eyes.

    In that situation, it was either a bad idea or the wrong kind of instinct to go after the catch.

    The punt was high. In this situation, timing becomes a major issue. Mistakes can be made.

    Krouse, Wade and the officials all made a mistake. Unfortunately, Wade was made the scapgoat for everyone elses BS. How convenient.

    Nice cover up by the refs though to make Wade look like a dirty player because Krouse got hurt. Classic SEC refereeing.

    • OwassoHog

      You’ve nailed the Wade situation… I think he was just playing agressive football at the time. I’m sure that if he watches the replay, he’d probably go ouch!

      Of course, media has picked up on this “Player takes cheap shot to another level “http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Video-Arkansas-8217-Wade-takes-cheap-shots-to?urn=ncaaf-wp8931″ This certainly isn’t helping…

  • Belinda Minnich

    This week’s opponent (the other USC) is not a team the Hogs can allow to get out ahead- especially after we slapped them around last year on their home turf. Regardless of how “Superior” downplayed that loss, it was still a slap in the face to them.

    It’s now November, and come hell or high water, there is a game that we must be prepared for at the end of the month. Let’s hope, the Hogs prepare for that game by playing their best game with every game between now and then.

  • Jay

    Agreed….if this is going to finally catch up to us against anyone, it’ll be against South Carolina. Maybe playing at home will help things all around.

    As for the Wade issue, you can’t blame a nineteen year old kid too much for getting majorly hyped up these days for a big hit. They see everyone else get all excited about it. The problem I have with his hit is that the ball wasn’t even there. I can understand making a mistake and hitting the guy, but when you know you beat the ball there, you can’t act like it’s the most wonderful play in the world. And, where did his fiestiness come from the last couple of weeks? Joe Adams rubbing off on the new kid? Not a good trend. Another problem for me, where were the coaches? They should have practically been running on the field to grab him and get him off.

    Cobi Hamilton needs more touches!! Wasting his physical talent, which could be the best among all of our receivers.

    • Anonymous

      If you watch the film I don’t think wade saw in call the fair catch as for the ball not being there if the ball comes over wades shoulder and the guy catches and remember wade didn’t see the fair catch called the guy catches everyone says wade is a hero

  • GolfHog

    “Of course, you need to be pretty good to get to the point where luck can help you out.”

    We’re not a top ten team for nothin’. We have taken two great shots on the road and are still standing. The fans are having as hard a time as the kids and the coaches getting used to being the hunted.

    There is plenty of luck in sports. You should see my golf game. There was a lot of good play on that field too, some of it by Vandy. Just like Ole Miss, they played over their heads but ultimately their depth and weaknesses got the best of them.

    We’ll play better at home in front of the home crowd. This team has learned to rely a bit too much on it’s crazy fans.

  • Ghost of Houston Nut

    What a sorry excuse for a football player I saw evidenced yesterday. Flying downfield full speed and crushing somebody who is standing totally still and staring up into space. Yea, what a fine player he is. And on top of that, jumping around like he did something great. What a joke ! All I can say is he would be turning in his pads this morning, if he was on my roster.

    • Mike Lewis

      I believe it is possible that when the punt returner excellerated to get up to the ball, Wade thought he had already caught it. Seldom do you see a punt returner standing still (misjudging the ball) that late, then running up to the ball that fast to catch it. I believe Wade thought the returner was running with the ball.

    • chilidog

      Has anyone asked Wade if he thought the returner had caught the ball. The kid made a mistake and paid for it. The officials should have grabbed him instantly and asked the question why he made the hit if they were thinking about ejecting him. If this is the only thing that gets you ejected from a game, maybe they should look at late hits on QB’s as a preface to ejection. Auburn’s Fairley took out 4 QB’s last year on 4 late/cheap shots. All were intentional and most were flagged (exception: Mallet being knocked out of game with late hit). I thought it was obvious he thought the returner had caught the ball. 15 yards personal foul penalty is the rule here.

      • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

        I agree on the QB. SEC is not doing a good job at all in this area.

  • Debbie

    You say take away Franklin’s fumble recovery and we lose. What about take away Cobi’s fumble at the goal line & Dennis’s fumble on the 20. Take away those and possibly have 2 more TD’s and a comfortable win. Look at the whole picture.

    It’s easy to watch and be critical. Yes there are problems, but we are 7 -1 and findings ways to win. A few years ago we would have been thrilled to be in this position. Enjoy the wins.

    • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

      Debbie, people are asking for “whys?”, so this is definitely focused more on the critical than the positive. It wasn’t just a few weeks ago I was accused of over-doing the kool-aid.

    • David

      That’s right Debbie.

    • Hog at Birth

      Both Debbie’s and HogBlogger’s points are valid, as there are plays in every game that can drastically change the outcome. What I think we are seeing here is one of the few pitfalls of being a top ten team….the big target on our backs. When those top programs come into your house you always play at a higher level. Bad thing is, the hogs aren’t used to the celebrity status yet. They’re still trying to figure out why everyone is aiming at them. I think after these past two games, they’re starting to get it.

      • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

        Excellent point.

  • HOG4EVER

    I didn’t see the Wade hit as being nearly as bad as its been made out to be. Now don’t misunderstand it was an obvious illegal hit. But the announcers (and the news) have made it out to be criminal. Even some bloggers in this thread have suggested him being removed from the team. However, I’ve watched the hit many times and I don’t see it that way. Here’s why: the job of the Gunner is to run down at full speed and try to time the hit on the return man exactly when the ball get there. If he would have timed it right everyone would be calling it the best hit of the weekend. It is very difficult for the Gunner to watch the ball in the air and watch the returner position. Because the returner was arching forward towards Wade it totally changed his target position on the field. Wade may have actually thought he had already caught it. Or at very least thought he had it timed right. That would explain his reaction. He didn’t spear him with his helmet. It wasn’t helmet-to-helmet. He put his shoulderpad right in the returner’s chest. He actually did everything right. He just mistimed the ball. I would need to hear his explanation before doing something rash like kicking the kid from the team.

    I don’t see this hit any worse than a linebacker laying out a defenseless QB from the blind side and mistiming the hit after the QB releases the ball or a safety taking out a WR coming across the middle and hitting them before the pass gets there. Both of those probably happened 10 times this weekend. They are all illegal but not criminal.

    • soupdhog

      lol..we posted the same thing about the same time – great minds think alike :)

    • David

      That’s right plus I think Wade had no idea where the ball was. Wade was one of only a few Hogs that played with emotion.

  • soupdhog

    You guys have to chill on Wade. He did exactly what he is coached to do – lay out the punt returner. These kids are encouraged to hit when the returner has his hands outstretched to catch the ball. The worst thing that can happen is a penalty, the best is you cause a fumble and get the ball back. He did exactly what he was supposed to do. Watch the replay – a fair catch wasn’t called, and the returner had his arms outstretched. Wade got there a split second before the ball did. And another point, how was Vandy allowed to advance the ball if a fair catch was called for? Doesn’t make sense.

    Regarding ‘luck’, keep in mind how hard it is to get a win on the road in the SEC. Also remember we are in the top 10 – every team we play is super hyped to get a shot at a contender, so each team will come out with their A game. I do think the Hogs have been overconfident the past 2 games, but it has been relatively easy for us to come back from defecits. It doesn’t make us comfortable as fans, but the Hogs are an incredibly confident group right now – 2 wins on the road is something we’ve craved for a while. We should feel pretty good about that.

    All championship level teams have close, ugly wins. Look at Stanford – even though USC got screwed on the personal foul call on 3rd down – Luck went Ryan Mallett and threw a pick six late. It was interesting to still see Herbstriet and Musberger continue to kiss his a$$ when they were quick to critize Mallett for choking, but I digress….

    Point being, Auburn had ugly wins last year. LSU and Bama still have some tough games. 7-1 is a great place to be right now.

    And get off of Wilson, this is his first year on the field, playing on the road in the SEC, etc. He’s going to make some misreads – but he has exceeded my expectations this year and has played fantastic.

  • Becky Young

    I know that Arkansas saw has a lot of talent that is being wasted. Don’t know if it’s lack of coaching or what, but they definitely should be playing consistently by this point into the season. Also, they should be vastly improved. Don’t get me wrong. I am a DIEHARD Razorback fan. At no point in time will I go against them. To beat LSU, they are going to have to be more than on top of their A game. I totally believe they can do it. They just have to go in with fire in their heart and eyes from the first tick of the clock until the last click of the double zeros at the end of the game.

    As for the Wade hit, he didn’t intentionally go out to hurt anyone. It’s the fact that he was still taunting and mouthing from the time the play was over and until he hit the locker room That’s what is so very unsportsmanlike and uncalled for. That’s what is truly the embarrassment for Arkansas.

    • http://www.therazorbackblogger.com/ GonzoHog

      He wasn’t taunting anyone. He was upset because he didn’t understand why he was being ejected.

      I have no clue why this is so hard for everyone to understand. I suppose just because those ignorrant announcers saw it that way, everyone else automatically becomes brain-washed.

      • OwassoHog

        Agreed!!! It would be interesting to interview him to get his side.

  • http://razorbloggers.net NewYorkHogFan

    I feel bad for Wade. He did exactly as he is coached to do. I also could not see that the returner called for a fair catch. I wish the University would publicly say something in support of Wade, because he is being roasted in the media. And it makes the whole team look bad. Wade is a good kid and would never purposely hit a guy that called for a fair catch.

    I watched Vandy’s first drive and had to turn off the game. Our defense was making the same old mistakes. I am no expert, but it seems that they are playing hard, maybe too hard and that caused them to sometimes be out of position to make the play. Are the players being over coached? I don’t understand why everyone could smell the fake punt coming, except the players?

    One other thing. I wish Petrino would let Dennis Johnson get more carries. Maybe he got mad at Dennis after the fumble, but he is our best back and would be more productive if he got more touches. I don’t think we can wait for Wingo to become the back we hoped he would be.

  • Homer_Hog

    I agree with all but one of the posts here.

    1). I absolutely agree that 4 years ago under the terrible reign of HDN we would have been signing a diferent tune; cheering and joyously praising the “hard fought win”.

    But this isn’t the HDN era, this is the CBMFP era and we are starting to get used to consitently winning. (that’s a good thing)

    2). Marquel Wade is being made out to be a villain…and it’s WRONG!

    That kid is lightning quick; blazing speed. In fact I think he was clocked with 4.2 or 4.0 speed? That’s Joe Adams fast. It was completely obvious to everyone with a dvr that the Vandy kid did not call for the fair catch; he was shielding his eyes from the sun. Wade was simply doing his job as the gunner and attacking the receiver who foolishly ran forawrd as if he had the ball….Wade was playing on instinct.

    I see LSU and Bama players getting away with that hit ever Saturday without a flag, in fact it’s just the opposite…they are heralded as amazing players, well coached and finely disciplined.

    That’s crap.

    3). The fact of the matter is this, the Razorbacks are 7-1. Under Coach Petrino they have gotten better each year; significantly so. Barring complete mayhem in the top 3 of the BCS, the HOGS won’t get a chance to play for a N.C. However, the chances that our beloved Razorbacks return to a BCS bowl are still highly possible. They need to start games the way they finish them; with intensity and passion. Good teams win. Great teams find ways to win, even when the odds get stacked against them.

  • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

    As to Wade…

    He has been an outstanding special teams player the past few weeks. One of the best out there.

    On the hit, much can be said. There was no fair catch, but that doesn’t matter. You still have to allow the guy to catch the ball. As to the “gunner” role, yes, he is supposed to go and hit the guy that catches the ball. As to his timing – it was a bit off. Probably influenced a lot by the fact the guy was running up to catch the ball. The guy running up helped make the hit look really bad.

    On the replay it is obvious that Wade lowered his head a step or two prior to hitting the receiver / runner. It seems that he speared the guy directly in the chest with his helmet. Plus, Wade’s head was slightly down, not up. Did a shoulder hit first. Maybe, but the look was more spearing.

    I don’t think Wade is a bad guy at all. He is taking way too much grief for this. He took a gamble at a big play and it didn’t work out.

    Trying to time a hit like that is a risky proposition. Having it go wrong can lead to exactly what this one has led to.

    It was what it was. I think the ejection was fair. Unfortunate, but fair.

    The helmet to helmet hits on Wilson bug me much more. There was a definite one in this game that could easily have been called. I think the SEC needs to improve their officiating in this area. They are a bit over-sensitive on the sideline stuff, and under-sensitive on the QB stuff.

    • Chuck Crandell

      Wade; The coaching staff had him escorted off the field and into locker room by the scruff of his neck! He was still “barking” like a mad dog as he left the field. Pure Punk, that is the crap I want stopped. Late hit in heat of the game somewhat understandable. Mouthing off like a rap star afterward as the coach has to drag him by the back of the neck to locker room come on! I think I am going to run my month at my boss, and see how far that will get’s me……..

  • Roadhog

    I, like most fans and pundits, it seems, think the Hogs are not playing well these days and that they are not well coached. But as the title of this post suggests, we have been lucky to get here with only one loss, to Bama, maybe the best team in the NCAA.

    Throwing out the Bama game, which we were never in, and the first two games, against MO St. and NM, which they were never in, we have won five games that were competitive, by a combined score of 178 to 132, for a 9 point average of victory. More than one score per game on average, pretty good. But we had 3 games, none of them in Arkansas, decided by 13 points, or 4 points per game. We could have lost any of those as easily as we won them. So luck has been with us.

    My experience as a player is that the more skill you bring to the game, the more control, whatever the game, the less luck is involved. And the better you play the better luck you have. Usually.

    Re the Wade hit: One point that comes up every week against the Hogs defense, particularly the cornerbacks, is that they don’t turn around to look for the ball when the receiver does or when it’s in the air. So they are not playing the ball, which might be the reason we have so few interceptions. Perhaps Wade as a special teamer is also taught not to look for the ball but to watch the receiver. I am not a receiver or coach, but I’ve played lots of kinds of ball, including a little football, and I could never stand not knowing where the ball was. I can’t understand not teaching a player to know where the ball is, especially if you have a chance to catch it and claim it for your team. The saying, “Keep your eye on the ball,” is axiomatic. You can keep an eye on your man with your peripheral vision. Watch the eyes, not the body.

    Marquel is not a dirty player and he should not be villainized for making a mistake. I just wonder whether he as a special teamer along with the defense is getting good coaching. That issue arises every week. You know the guy, Slack Willy.

    About that defense: The wonky folks over at HogDatabase analyzed championship teams over a period of time and discovered that on average they gave up only 13 points a game on defense, if I recall the results aright. Over the five competitive games the Hogs have been in this season they have given up an average of 26 points a game, twice the number of points surrendered by championship caliber teams. The most glaring weakness of this team is its defense. The weakness on offense is the line. The core of any championship team is its corps of linesmen.

    Sorry for being long-winded. Had to get that off my chest.

    • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

      Great stuff.

      I would disagree on one point. I think the Razorbacks are extremely well coached. That is why they are able to “win ugly” lately. They have a huge bag of tricks and are well schooled on delivering them. Over the course of a game this makes a huge difference.

      Somehow, early in games, this is not showing up so well. There’s a specific something.

      My view is simple. The defense comes out over-aggressive and this leads to mistakes. As the game progresses the defense gets more fundamentally sound and thus plays better. The offense comes out half asleep and doesn’t get it going until they get hit a few times and suffer a bit of yelling from the coaches.

      There are adjustments along the way that help a lot, but I think most of the issue is in the 6 inches between the ears.

      • Roadhog

        You may be right, HogBlogger, that they are well coached and that they have a huge bag of tricks, well delivered. I’d agree about the bag on offense, at least. But on defense they make so many fundamental errors, such as poor tackling, it’s hard for me to see good coaching. And the last two weeks the defense has been flummoxed by mobile quarterbacks. The defense just loses containment, on the QB as well as on the corners. And the Hogs commit way too many procedural errors to qualify as well coached, IMO. This team is barely winning against teams we are heavily favored to beat. I respect your opinions, and you’re much closer to the action than I am.

        This was a good subject (luck) to discuss. Well chosen. I appreciate your work.

      • Carolina Hog

        I agree that we are well coached. You lose your starting QB, best TE in the country, 3 offensive linemen, and your all-american runningback, yet start 7-1. It would be hard to call that bad coaching. I think the expectations got a little out of control this year and that is part of the issue.

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    • texhogforever

      Good points HogBlogger. I think the pounding Wilson’s been getting all year is starting to show up in poor reads and inaccurate throws. If he doesn’t get better protection immediately coaches should consider using Brandon Mitchell in certain situations. Wilson may be tough as nails but he’s only human.

      When you consider the favorable outcome of the past few games and especially the Vandy win, this Hog team seems to be a team of destiny. Only question is, which way will destiny carry them? Are they headed for 11-1 or 7-5? Guess we’ll know soon enough!!

      • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

        Wilson is definitely suffering over the faulty protection. It is a huge deal.

  • Defense Wins Champio

    Yes, better fortunate than good in this game. Wade probably got a raw deal but the rawest was our coaches taking him off the field appeared to be gripping at him in public. Perhaps they were not doing that, but made me wonder. I was also disappointed in Coach. Petrino putting the Woody Hayes treatment on our players as they returned to the sideline. Is he cracking under the pressure? I have never liked that and never will. He needs to remain under control like Chizik, the cool one. Seems as if our D will never come together but as I recall we had question marks as the season was getting ready for the season.

    • soupdhog

      Oh know you didn’t. You didn’t just say Petrino needs to be like Chizik. Seriously? In case you didn’t know, the brains behind Auburn is not Chizik – Chizik is the guy that asked the NCAA compliance officer why they haven’t finished their investigration IN FRONT OF A LARGE GROUP OF PEOPLE. What an idiot.

      Petrino is griping at his players to hold them accountable for nothing less than excellence. That’s what I want out of the coach for my favorite team.

      Defense, you usually have some great comments but you should be banned from this board for making that statement.

      • http://www.razorbloggers.net/ HogBlogger

        Defense – Petrino is not shy about screaming at players (or officials). I take it you’ve not watched very many practices. He has had occasions like that on the sidelines all along – usually directed at the quarterback. He screamed at Tejada in the first game he coached and Tejada was never the same again.

        Coaches usually yell. That’s just part of it.

  • Defense Wins Champio

    Appreciate the great posts. Wally gets his best stuff from you guys! Without the posts, he would be sweeping floors.l