August 20, 2014

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly — South Carolina

Some random thoughts after the Razorbacks quality win at home over South Carolina.

The Good

  • No one player is truly a superstar on this team but Dennis Johnson is getting pretty close.  Unlike the other running backs, Johnson has proven he’s a true “home run hitter” that provides more than just the threat of a running game.  And that doesn’t even account for his special teams prowess.  The outcome of the game may have still been the same, but without DJ, the Hogs would’ve certainly taken a different path to get there on Saturday.
  • Using sprint outs of Tyler Wilson to minimize the effectiveness of the South Carolina defensive line was a small but brilliant move.  Unlike Ryan Mallett, Wilson has shown he’s very accurate rolling out of the pocket and throwing on the move.  (Garrick McGee says Tyler has “a gift.”)  Once the Gamecocks vaunted defensive line was neutralized, Wilson and his receivers were able to expose their less than stellar secondary all night long.
  • Honorable Mention:  The package of using Brandon Mitchell in the red zone has been nicely effective.  Just one more thing for the opponents to prepare for in the remaining games.

The Bad

  • For once, we’re going to let up on saying anything was “bad” this week.  While there were more than a few missed opportunities, the way this team played on Saturday is pretty much what we were expecting to see each and every week.  That’s unrealistic, of course…it’s a long season.  But there’s no better time than now to play your best football.  Finish.
  • Honorable Mention:  Not sure if this showed up on the game broadcast but we couldn’t believe how bad South Carolina’s stud wideout Alshon Jeffery looked on Saturday.  Jeffery appeared lazy running his routes and his body language looked every bit like a guy who was just going through the motions.  Assuming he’s not injured, it appears Jeffery has already started counting his NFL money.

The Ugly

  • Whether it’s scheme or coaching, the Hogs’ defense appears incapable of stopping a running quarterback again this season.  Some will say the dropped passes were “ugly” but those haven’t been a problem every week.  Keeping the quarterback contained has been a problem now for multiple seasons.  At this point, I guess it’s just something we should expect to see every time the Razorbacks face a dual-threat quarterback.
  • While it doesn’t take away from the win, falling a spot after beating a top 10 ranked team shows how little we should pay attention to the BCS during the season.  ESPN might as well just declare weekly who Skip Bayless thinks are the top 25 teams in the country.  Sheesh.

Of course, we can’t possibly mention everything that was “Good, Bad and Ugly.”  What did we leave out?

  • Roadhog

    Good: Progress: An announcer made a big deal of it when an Arkansas cornerback actually turned around to look for the ball while it was in the air. Memo to Willy Robinson: When the ball is in the air it belongs to the defense just as much as it does to the offense. Go for it!

    Bad: Penalties: Three defensive penalties on one drive, SC’s first score. Defense gave up 3 TDs to a team without its star running back and with a new QB. Tipster, you’re being very generous in not carping on the BAD, so let me do some of it for you: This team’s defense SUCKS! There were six penalties in the first quarter, and only three first downs.

    Ugly: Without DJ’s return for TD it would have been another slow start for the offense.

    Uglier: Dropped passes.

    Ugliest: Drop in the polls after beating a top-ten team. This system is so rigged it has no credibility with anyone except the pollsters themselves.

    There I feel better already. I can barely believe how ambivalent I felt about beating a top-ten team. Maybe Petrino has overdone the expectations thing. I still don’t think this team is very good, after the way Bama knocked us around.

    • Hawgfan100

      Let me see if I have this right:

      Arkansas drills a top ten team with defense and they still suck?

      and,

      Arkansas still isn’t very good (even though it is a solid top ten itself) because they got ‘knocked around’ by Bama early in the season?

      Whew. Got some Bama or OU genes in the pool? Otherwise, chill on the expectations.

      • Roadhog

        Did you catch the actual game? No way SC should have been in the top ten. I’m pointing out the bad, the mistakes, the penalties, etc. Plus the Hogs gave up three touchdowns, as I pointed out, to a team with a new quarterback and without their all-conference running back. I reference AL because we played them and they played a top-ten team on Saturday, also, and gave up no, N-O, touchdowns. Arkansas has been winning with offense, not defense. I never mentioned OU, so I don’t know why you threw that in there, except just to be an asshole, like you always are.

      • Hawgfan100

        Caught it live and have watched selected parts of it numerous times, as I am typically wont to do. Did you?

        Not my problem USCe is overrated. I’m sure there are a few folks out there convinced WE’RE still not worthy also…not my problem either. We’re still ranked in the top ten.

        “New quarterback”? Perhaps but Shaw’s sure not ‘bright and shiny’, now is he? He’s been around a bit. Missing Lattimore hurt but the kid who replaced him was the SEC Freshman Player of the Week before our game. That’s impressive, eh (at least I tend to think so when it’s one of our freshmen)?

        Bama has the #1 defense in the NATION. They should have done what they did, no? Arkansas has the #55 defense NOW. I think they’re doing just fine, but then I’ve dialed my expectations back just a tad for the team. You haven’t and that’s your problem.

        I threw OU in there because they, like Bama, have stupidly high expectations every year; something I was sure you could relate to in a very personal way.

        And I’m not ‘always an asshole’, just when folks deserve it.

      • Roadhog

        Do I detect some prosimian homunculus genes in the pool?

      • Hawgfan100

        Naturally.

  • uvahog

    While, like Roadhog, I’m not sold on how good we actually are (less based on the Alabama game than on our poor first half starts after Auburn–and really I think if the Bama game had been later in the season and in Fayetteville things might have been different), I think we should note the reasonable possibility that this team could go all the way. Stanford loses to Oregon, Okie St. loses to Oklahoma, and we beat LSU in Death Valley on the last weekend of the season and go on to beat a 10-2 UGA team in the SEC championship we would have quite a case for being in the national championship. Oregon and Oklahoma would as well, but we would have lost to a most likely 11-1 Alabama team early in the season and on the road while the Okies lost to a Texas Tech team that might not finish above .500, and Oregon lost to LSU the team that we just beat.

    Do I think we will likely beat LSU? Probably not but it is certainly within the realm of possibility. Of anyone they play this season we might match up against them best. That scenario is a little bit of a long-shot, but our quality win against USCe and LSU beating Bama this weekend just made it a lot more plausible. I think that might be the most notable “Good” that came out of this weekend.

    • http://therazorbackblogger.com GonzoHog

      Conventional wisdom tells me if that happens, Arkansas should play Bama for the NC, but as we all know, OU has a mid-west/Big 12 bias from the human voter.

      All this could very well happen and we still get screwed.

      The one thing that could happen in our favor is that unlike last season, OU doesn’t get an extra game with the Big 12 championship. They simply have to settle for a win over OSU being good enough.

      That may not do the trick this time with a win over LSU. We’ll see.

      • Roadhog

        “The human voter” will finesse the situation as much as they can to get the game they want. If they could reasonably shut out the SEC I believe they would. The fact that the SEC has owned the damn trophy makes this conference both respected and reviled, by football fans and by said primates with votes. They’d like to get Stanford and Okie State, if they remain undefeated. Likely the zebras will do all they can to ensure that outcome. If LSU remains undefeated, they’re in the NC game with another undefeated, if there is one. If not, they’ll take the one-loss team that provides the biggest audience, and that audience does not reside in Oklahoma nor Arkansas.

        Arkansas might be a long shot, Hail Mary distance, but to complete that play requires some magical thinking, if not intervention by the football fairies. Petrino’s Hogs teams have won some inspiring victories, snatched from the jaws, but they’ve also at times played some dispiriting football. They don’t seem poised to become the Big Red Machine.

      • uvahog

        One, I don’t think the scenario I described is “magical thinking.” In fact, it is more likely that Stanford and Okie State lose before all is said and done, thus the only thing magical might be us beating LSU in Death Valley, a scenario that I would not be too surprised about because of how well we match up with them and the fact that our games are almost always close. Two, if you think the refs fix games for the outcome of the BCS you should just quit watching college football; I mean what’s the point. Go join the John Birch society or something. Three, I don’t think that the largest football audiences resided in Auburn or Oregon last year, but they were in the championship. Four, I’ve seen teams that went on to win the national championship play some “dispiriting” football, e.g. the Alabama-Tennessee game of 2009. Our only dispiriting games were wins against Ole Miss and Vandy and an Alabama game that we let get away from us early in the season. Five, there’s only one commenter on this post who’s acted like an ass.

  • GolfHog

    Ditto DJ.

    I get that Bobby Petrino angry dog face when he puts in Green or Wingo. I feel better now though.

    Bobby knows what he’s doing. He won’t get any grief from me.

    If you consider the injuries and weaknesses on this team, what they and Bobby have done is really amazing. They are still a national dark horse.

  • Pingback: Razorback Roundup: Arkansas 44, South Carolina 28 | Fayetteville Flyer - News, Art & Life

  • Jim Dogg

    Excellent analysis Tipster. But, Roadhog, whoa with the nasty ad hominems just because someone disagrees with you. Now prosimian homuculus genes, I like that, much more Barkley-like “civilized”. Roadhog you forget that two missed TD catches by normally sure handed receivers and the almost Ripley-believe-it-or-not interception by the defensive end prevented this from becoming a really big blowout. (My son pulled off the same play in 6th grade little league but I have never seen another like it until Saturday). The defense is not great, but it has it’s moments and their job is to keep the score below what the offense can put up. Guess what? It’s working.

    Roadhog, I agree with you that the BCS is rigged, especially with computer rankings. I have worked with computer programs analyzing data most of my life and this looks suspicious. Last week I was astounded to see that OSU had the “strongest” scheduale which didn’t stand up under my scrutiny of games played. More surprising to me was that the computer rankings were so much in agreement. Using separate computer services there should have been far more disagreement. Looks as if all the computer services except one are using the same program with the same data input. The use of all these services is apparently to make sure that there is a facade of honesty to the proceedings. I think that it is the NCAA and BCS method of finagling the outcome they want. The winner of an 8 or whatever it was and an unranked opponent and it goes up (?) above a 6-9 winner (?). I agree with Tipster, one should not take the BCS too seriously until near the end. If I had an explanation for this I would refer to an ESPN commentator (Smith?). What the “country” wants to see is a matchup between a high scoring offense and the defense of LSU or Bama. The BCS standings are tilting that way. One or both of 2 teams will be eliminated in the OU-OSU and Oregon-Stanford games. The SEC seems a lock even with one defeat, for one BCS position so the other will go to another, preferably, undefeated team. Another oddity is that Bama fell to 3 after losing by a FG in OT to #1. Both Holtz and Mays felt otherwise and had LSU 1 and Bama 2. The explanation for this is to now keep Bama out of the 2 position reserved for a high scoring offense. Up to now I thought Boise didn’t have a chance (nor should it – considering strength of scheduale – another BCS mystery) for the championship game. But if there is no undefeated team left, and my theory has legs, then Boise will be # 2 to prevent a rematch between Bama and LSU. All conjecture, but I always start my analyses with chez la money.

    Tipster, you mentioned Skip Bayless. I watched an ESPN show and Heisman candidates came up and a top 5 list was going to be given. Someone in the background, sarcastically I assume, yelled out whether Landry Jones was on the list. Skip went ballistic, spittle-spewing like Chris Matthews, saying that Jones did not belong on that list nor a top ten list nor a top one hundred list. He personally blamed Jones for the defeat to a decidely inferior TTU team. I was stunned. I would have asked Skipper if Jones was responsible for TTU’s 41 points. Then he followed with OU could beat both Bama or LSU on a neutral field barring no injuries. This was so irrational that I looked up Bayless’ background. I knew he had written for the Dalla Morning News so he was a Big 12 guy but, although he went to Vanderbilt, he was born and raised in Oklahoma City and obviously bleeds Sooner red. Skip has other issues, his given name was the same as his dad, Robert, but he legally changed it to Skip (?). Bottom line here is that many writers are, understandably partisan, but some are irrationally and rabidly so that it would tilt human polls. The BCS may reflect this with the human polls (a big 12 bias allied with anyone but the SEC) or, as I said, they are trying to set up the championship game that would be the most nationally interesting (and lucrative) and therefore it’s being rigged.

    • Jim Dogg

      I would like to add something that hasn’t yet been much noticed, LSU’s victory over Bama was part of the road to redemption for Les Miles. He has carried the burden that his Nt’l championship was done with Saban’s players. Three more steps. Getting to the SEC championship undefeated, win that game, and win the Championship game. With W. Kentucky and a really dysfunctional Ole Miss team (adding to the fact that the LSU game is before traditional rival MSU) this makes it really hard for Petrino and the Hogs to win considering where Miles will focus his attention. I think that Miles is on a mission and unfortunately the Hogs stand in the way.

      For arguements sake, let’s say that the Hogs win and there is a three way tie. Who goes to Atlanta? Three obvious options; First, there is the “fairness” doctine that the Big Ten for years used to determine its Rose Bowl team, even sending second place winners. Everybody needs to get a chance idea. Arkansas goes because it was there last. However, the Big Ten had to stop this because it was getting beat regularly no matter who they sent. So send the best team. The other option is to send the best team to the SEC championship. So who is the best team? Well, the SEC will cop-out and let the BCS decide (hah). My hunch it would be Alabama simply because, no matter who won that game last Saturday, most experts still think that Bama is the better of the two teams (it does after all, have a Heisman candidate who needs the big stage). The third option is that the fight will be for the number 2 spot behind an undefeated team. The BCS will decide and here is where I get really paranoid. It will go to Arkansas.** Not because it’s the strongest team but the team most likely to be beaten by the # 1. The NCAA probably doesn’t like the dominance of the SEC and would like to break it. I have always suspected that the selection of a 2 loss LSU team for the Championship was to set up the game for an Ohio State (and Big Ten) win. That was the year that the scribes in the Midwest and East wanted a rematch between OSU and Michigan and the bowl results showed how wrong they were. It will still be a game of huge national interest with fans everywhere rooting for an SEC (Arkansas) loss especially if the opponent is Boise. This is the only way I see the Hogs getting to the Superdome (other than an Auburn win over the Tide).

      I was grateful that Bama got beat. I was sick and tired ot the media proclaiming the Tide as invincible and with no weaknesess (It’s not only coaches who ignore kicking games, but apparently so do scribes). And that Saban is the second coming of Bryant. Well, the pigeons have pooped on Saban’s statue. Good, I hope that Auburn beats them.

      **Arkansas would still have to beat the SEC East champion. If not, then the selection for the BCS championship will go to LSU by virtue of its win over Bama. Like OU losing the Big 12 championship and stil going to the Big One. Confusing no?

      • GolfHog

        Alot of weird stuff would have to happen to get Arkansas in the SEC or National Championship games. But, you may remember when Arkansas beat LSU in Baton Rouge and they still went to the title game with two losses because of all of the upsets that followed. Likely? no. Possible, you bet. My personal choice, Arkansas v Stanford.

    • Roadhog

      The “ad hominems” are payback for same that were directed at me. I even got slashed for using the words ad hominem to define the attacks against me. I finally just got fed up, that’s all, and decided to hit back. I’m peeved as heck and I’m not gonna take it anymore.

      My comments are rarely directed at anybody in particular, just remarks about team play and coaching. Some people here seem to take it personally when I criticize the performance of the team, pointing out the obvious, which is not even insightful on my part, just amplifying commentary from the media, points that seem most relevant to me, or ones which seem to get overlooked on this site. On this blog I’ve been called a troll and a blog heel and worse for having the temerity to point out obvious weaknesses of Petrino’s teams. Sometimes you have to consider the source when a shit heel calls you a blog heel.

      It seems that many commenters on this site can’t stand for anybody else to criticize the team for its failures, but it’s OK for them to do it.

      The title of this post is “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” and I put my initial comments into that format. What followed has been mostly attacks against me, none addressing the topic, at least in that format. Most people seem to want to discuss polls and rankings and bowls rather than the game just played. I guess “one game at a time” only applies to the players.

      To the point that officiating is “rigged”: Games are probably not consciously and premeditatedly rigged, but the outcome can be nudged along to favor the chosen team. There are doubtless indivual refs who are corrupt, as has been shown repeatedly.

      As for the polls themselves, Gonzo and Jim Dogg have stated much better than I how much the human element, read bias, can determine who plays and who watches. I’m not going to give up being a fan of college football because of a few corrupt officials.

      • Hawgfan100

        “It seems that many commenters on this site can’t stand for anybody else to criticize the team for its failures, but it’s OK for them to do it.”

        Usually depends on how valid the criticism is…and though I tend to not criticize the team, you most certainly can….just be prepared for some ‘reverse-analysis’. ;^)

        “The “ad hominems” are payback for same that were directed at me.”

        I don’t recall us having any set-to’s but by all means throw on down. I generally give as good or better than I get.

        Bear in mind, I’m going out of town for a funeral tomorrow and internet access will be spotty at best for the next four or five days.

      • Roadhog

        You don’t remember calling me “Roadkill” last year, after calling me a “blog heel”? Then you challenged me to an argument, same as you’ve done now?

        As you say, you “tend to not criticize the team.” No you just nitpick other people’s comments, line by line, as you’ve done here. I am by no means the only one you’ve done that to. That’s the easiest thing in the world to do, the most irresponsible and cowardly. It takes a little more guts and effort to make a statement of your own and stand by it.

        This is a friendly site: the Bloggers and commenters are just big Hog fans who like to talk about their team, tho tempers do rise on occasion. I’m not going to foul the air by jousting with you in a running argument. That would not be fair to the others.

        I’m not going to waste my time nor theirs engaging in a pissing contest with a dick like you.

      • Hawgfan100

        Nope, don’t remember but certainly sounds like something I could have said. Nice to make an impression. Or was it leave a mark?

        I haven’t ‘challenged you to an argument’. I’ve asked you, after a fashion, to support/defend your remarks.

        I ask those whose comments I have an issue with to support/defend them and detail what it is I have an issue with exactly. That’s courteous and helpful. (I also tend to adopt the tone or spirit in which the comments were originally posted; that may not be so courteous…too bad). If said poster then cannot support/defend their comments, I’ve noticed they tend to get pissy, like you. Again: too bad.

        I’m here defending my comments. My position is opposed to yours. Unlike you (and many others), I’ve chosen a real, live opponent to ‘joust’ with…you know, one who can respond and defend themselves.

        That doesn’t sound cowardly to me but you go ahead, pick up your marbles, and throw ad homs on your way out the door. I’ll be around when you work up the ‘courage’ again.

  • soupdhog

    I think we’re all missing something here. Just like Bama and LSU was considered the true national championship game given they are clearly the top 2 teams (at least on defense), we are going to have national championship game round 2 on Nov 25. Everyone will get what they want – a high powered offense against the fantastic defense of LSU. And if the Hogs get past Tn and Miss St, the stakes are HUGE. This won’t be a field goal contest, and has the potential to be an incredibly exciting game.

    And for those that think we are over rated and don’t have a chance against LSU, consider these things:

    1. Say what you want about our running game, but if DJ is healthy we have one. And a pretty good one at that. SC has a big D line (some think as good or better than LSU), and we were able to run effectively.

    2. The wrinkle of Wilson being mobile and moving the pocket creates a huge problem for our opponents, as USCe found out. It helps neutralize D line dominance and forces the Linebackers to fall into coverage. Look at what Cragg did – he’s a matchup nightmare to a LB as long as he can keep catching the ball. And if LBs are blitzing Cragg and whoever is in the slot will have a field day.

    3. Moving the pocket also creates more time for receivers to get open. With Wright, Adams, and Hamilton’s speed, one of those guys is going to get open….see Wright’s 70 yard TD catch.

    4. Our defense actually has a chance to stop or slow down LSU’s offense. They are not a high powered offense. While Ware is strong, he is no Richardson. We know how to stop Jefferson. Lee is stable but not prolific. Our dbs are playing better and match up against their receivers.

    Overall I think we match up pretty well against LSU. We are a much different team now than we were against Bama. If we can continue small improvements, the Nov 25 game is the game of the year without a doubt, and is probably one of the biggest games in Hog history. The series has already been exciting, but with the high stakes that could materialize the media coverage could be more out of control than the Bama LSU coverage. Exciting times fellow Hog fans.

    • http://therazorbackblogger.com GonzoHog

      Soup,

      A few things to consider about LSU:

      (1) We play them in Baton Rouge in front of their rowdy home crowd.

      (2) We haven’t played well (consistant) on the road all season.

      (3) LSU is better on D than SC.

      (4) LSU’s D will always get INTs, no matter who they play.

      (5) Sure, the Hog’s O-line looked pretty good against the Gamecocks at home, mainly because of CBP’s game plan of purposely rolling TW out of the pocket on most of his passing plays.

      (6) LSU’s run game is for real and better than I had originally thought. (see Bama)

      (7) Jefferson is a good dual-threat QB with experience. In the past, we’ve been able to force him into situations he’s not comfortable with in long passing situations.

      With the help of starting QB Lee and some very tall, athletic WRs, they haven’t been forced to face those kind of issues on offense all season.

      If we’re going to win that game, we have to at least play close to perfect and be blessed with a little luck. That’s just the reality of it.

      • Skywalker

        “If we’re going to win that game, we have to at least play close to perfect and be blessed with a little luck.”

        I agree. I would also point out that history says that can happen. We can’t buy luck when we play Bama (not since the Tiffin Teeter, anyway); we often get lucky against LSU.

        I think the LSU game sets up well for us. We’re getting some time to get our feet back under us at home. The running game is finally starting to click. We’re the last game on the most brutal schedule in the country. We have a lot of the guys from the team that let one slip away in Death Valley in 2009. We’re sorta maybe potentially playing for an SEC championship. Start time is early afternoon instead of at night (as opposed to ’09) or morning (as opposed to OM & Vandy this year). Seniors on defense are finally stepping up.

        There are still a myriad of reasons to favor LSU, of course. But I think we’ve got a genuine shot.

      • soupdhog

        Gonzo, my response to your post will be in the form of a scene from the movie entitled, “Dumb and Dumber”….(paraphrased)

        Lloyd Christmas: “So what is the chance of a guy like me hooking up with a girl like you?”

        Hot Girl: “Like, 1 in a million.”

        Lloyd Christmas: “So you’re saying there’s a chance…”

        And….scene.

      • Jim Dogg

        Right again Gonzo. At least to me.

  • redhog1

    the way i i understand things..in the case of 3 way tie in west..team with highest bcs rank….goes to sec championship…..soooo we beat a rank team and fall inthe polls..dont have to be a rocket-scientist…to see where this is headed……

    • Skywalker

      The rule says that if three teams have the same record and all beat each other, the highest-ranked team goes to Atlanta UNLESS the second-highest team is within five spots of it, in which case the head-to-head between THOSE TWO TEAMS ONLY determines who goes to Atlanta. Obviously, there’s no way the second-highest team won’t be within five spots.

      So if we beat LSU and there are three 11-1 teams, the only way we get to Atlanta is if we AND LSU are ranked above Alabama (doesn’t matter if we’re above or below LSU).

      That’s why the odds are still fairly slim for us. It’s just not likely that Bama would be the lowest-ranked if we’re all tied — they destroyed us, they only lost to LSU in OT, and most importantly, they’re Bama.

      So if we can somehow beat LSU on Black Friday, we’ll be yelling War Eagle on Saturday. An Auburn upset would unmuddle everything and put us in Atlanta.

      To review, our Path to Atlanta:

      (1) Beat LSU

      (2a) Auburn beats Alabama OR

      (2b) Bama wins and is ranked below both us and LSU in the subsequent BCS poll.

      (This comment assumes that Arky, LSU, and Bama will all be 10-1 going into Thanksgiving. Forgive me for looking past the Mighty Volunteers and the Fearsome Bulldogs.)

      • redhog1

        got my fingers crossed…thanks for breaking it down for me..skywalker

      • soupdhog

        You would think that LSU would stay ahead of Bama if we win, since they beat Bama. But when does logic apply to the BCS….

      • http://therazorbackblogger.com GonzoHog

        You have to also understand that Bama whipped our ever lovin behinds on that very same field in Tuscaloosa.

        The logic there would be that the team Bama blew out at home also beat the team responsible for giving Bama their 1st and only loss of the season at home and they did it in Baton Rouge.

        That means LSU got beat at home by a team ranked (probably at least #7 by then) that lost to Bama in Tuscaloosa by 24.

        When LSU beat Bama, they were #1, not #7. See the difference?

        This is just my opinion, but if the Hogs knock off LSU and Bama wins out the regular season, I think Bama goes to the SEC championship game.

        If they win there, it’ll be hello NC game against OSU. (if they win out against the Sooners)

        I also believe LSU would’ve a great enough season, they fall in front of the Hogs in the BCS and get the invite to the 2nd BCS game offered to the second highest SEC ranked team.

      • soupdhog

        If Bama is below LSU they can’t go to the ship cause of the ‘ranked within 5′ rule – which is an incredibly stupid rule I might add – and the head to head. I can’t see that happening.

        Here is are some scenarios….keep in mind either Stanford, Oregon, OSU or OU will lose at least one more…that’s guaranteed due to the remaining head to head schedules for those teams. So let’s assume Hogs win out and Bama wins out.

        Before LSU game:

        1. LSU

        3. Bama

        4 or 5. Hogs (since either OSU, Stanford, Oregon or OU will lose – all ranked in front of us, and if we beat LSU we should jump Boise)

        After we beat LSU

        2. Hogs

        3. LSU

        4 or 5 Bama

        Bama wouldn’t leap an LSU loss cause of last weeks game. Doesn’t matter that Bama beat us, just like it doesn’t matter that Texass Tech beat OU. In this scenario, we win the West cause of the within 5 and head to head rule – LSU is within 5 but we win the head to head.

        or

        2. LSU

        3. Hogs

        4. Bama

        I can’t imagine we wouldn’t jump Bama after beating LSU. We may not overcome LSU but could be right under them. In this scenario, we still win the west cause we’re within 5 of LSU and won the head to head.

        Basically all we have to do is win out and we’re going to Atlanta. I’m convinced that LSU’s win over Bama kicked the door wide open for us.

      • Jim Dogg

        Good analysis. Best bet for Arkansas is for Auburn to beat Bama. Does anyone see that happening, even at Auburn?

  • Jim Dogg

    Gonzo I hate to admit this again but I agree with your assessment, in part. Arkansas will have to beat LSU by at least 2 touchdowns to get the nod to Atlanta. I’m not sure what the league rules say but they might finagle this, say, by a vote of the SEC teams in an effort to get the strongest possible team. Remember Oklahoma, and we don’t know the fine print available to the SEC lawyers. And don’t think that the BCS will not have an invisible finger in this pie. As the ESPN guys have said they (speaking for an anonymous generalized public, of course) want to see a high scoring offense to test LSU and Alabama and not two high scoring offenses which will look a Big 12 game. Soup, the Hogs have a remote outside chance but only if they can win decisively and not by a close score or Hail Mary play. Sorry, it is what it is.

    • http://therazorbackblogger.com GonzoHog

      The media has too much respect for both LSU and Bama right now and rightfully so.

      That’s why Bama only dropped one spot to #3.

      If the Hogs knock off an undefeated, #1 ranked LSU team in Baton Rouge, LSU’s outstanding SOS and winning road record will still weigh out heavily with the voters.

      If Stanford just so happens to still be undefeated at that time, LSU will drop no farther than #4.

      I see a one loss Bama @ #1, an undefeated Stanford @ #2, a one loss Arkansas at #3, a one loss OU at #4, and an undefeated Boise St. at #5.

      Bama will play Stanford in the NC, Arkansas will play OU in the Sugar Bowl, and Boise plays whoever in the…..Toilet Bowl. (lols!)

      • http://therazorbackblogger.com GonzoHog

        Whoops!… Sorry. I meant #4 LSU would play #5 OU in the Sugar bowl and #3 Arkansas would play Boise St. in the Fiesta Bowl.

        Make sense?…probably not.