We’re not complaining about four winning weeks in a row, but we were mighty disappointed in our friends from Jonesboro last week. The Red Wolves laid a HUGE egg in Memphis last week, losing 31-7 as four-point favorites. The loss kept us from a perfect week as Stanford and the USU/USC under paid the rent.
After four weeks, everyone is getting a much better read on teams. Less uncertainty leads to fewer and fewer ‘mistakes’ by the line makers. Tread lightly.
Last Week: 2-1 Year to Date: 9-4 (69.2%)
Miami, Fla. at South Florida – Road favorites usually make us pause, but the Canes might have more fans in Tampa this week than the Bulls. USF is off to a catastrophic start under first year head coach Willie Taggert – a start that includes a 32-point loss to FCS member McNeese St. Their offense is averaging 12.3 points per game (121st nationally). Comparing scores against common opponents is sometimes flawed, but here goes…Miami beat Florida Atlantic 34-6 in week 1. Florida Atlantic beat USF 28-10 in week 3. Canes QB Stephen Morris will play this week (ankle) as The U tries to keep their momentum heading into their ACC opener next week vs. Georgia Tech. Canes big. Miami, Fla. -18.
Florida St. at Boston College – The Seminoles have started the year as huge favorites in all three of their games this year (3-0 ATS). Frosh QB ‘Famous Jameis’ Winston has been flawless (718 PaYds, 8TDs), completing a staggering 78.1% (50-for-64) of his passes so far. FSU ranks fifth in points per game (52.3), and has shown great balance with running backs Devonta Freeman and James Wilder, Jr. forming a dynamic 1-2 punch. After lackluster wins against bad teams Villanova and Wake Forest, BC went on the road and let a struggling USC offense score 35 on them…yikes! FSU just has too much firepower in this one. Florida St. -22.
Wyoming at Texas St. – We cashed on the Cowboys back in Week 2, and so far this season they have been a cover machine (4-0 ATS). If you don’t know the name Brett Smith, you should. The Wyoming quarterback is one of the most electric players in college football. He is completing 69% of his passes (1,315 PaYds, 13 TDs) and rolled up 437 yards of total offense last week vs. Air Force. Texas State has struggled to put up points so far, and starting QB Tyler Arndt (366 PaYds) has yet to throw a TD. Don’t think they can keep up with the Cowboys…even at home. Wyoming -11.5.
USC at Arizona St. – We faded Arizona State last week, taking Stanford who easily covered at home. The Sun Devils were coming off an emotional win the week before at home vs. Wisconsin, and started slow vs. the Cardinal – falling behind 29-0 before eventually losing 42-28. We think ASU has a chance to rebound this week at home against USC, who continues to be offensively challenged. The Trojans just can’t get any consistency in the passing game (163.5 PaYds per game, 108th nationally). Meanwhile ASU QB Taylor Kelly (354.7 TotYds/game) ranks 9th nationally in total offense. Sun Devils rebound. Arizona St. -3.5.
Who are you on this week?