November 21, 2014

Hold All Tickets: Week 6 Window of Opportunity

Money SheetLast week was a difficult week for most, so we feel fortunate to have gone 2-2.  A 3+ hour weather delay seemed to sap Wyoming as the 11.5-point favorites fell to Texas State.  Florida State won but couldn’t cover a big number (22) at Boston College.  Miami and Arizona State – in Lane Kiffin’s last hurrah – made the weekend one big push.

A more attractive slate of games awaits us this week as we look for our windows of opportunity.

Last Week:  2-2      Year to Date:  11-6  (64.7%)

Georgia Tech at Miami, Fla. – Miami went through the motions last week and still beat a weak sister South Florida team 49-21.  The Canes could have put up 70, but fumbled three times inside the 10-yard line.  QB Stephen Morris reinjured his ankle, but says he’ll give it a go against GT this week.  If he can’t, backup Ryan Williams (22-31, 369 PaYds, 3TDs) has proven to be excellent in relief.  The Yellow Jackets, as usual, are very one dimensional (115th nationally in passing yards per game), and managed only 129 RuYds against a very good VT defense last week.  Last year under HC Al Golden, the Canes showed the discipline to stop the GT option offense.  Miami, Fla. -5.5.

TCU at Oklahoma – The Sooners find themselves in a classic ‘sandwich game’ this week against TCU.  Coming off a nice 35-21 win over Notre Dame, OU gets Texas next week in the Red River Rivalry.  The public sees this setup and has bet this line down to 8.5 from an opening number of 11.5.  Since taking over the starting QB duties, Blake Bell has been making plays for the Sooners with his arm and his legs.  Meanwhile, TCU has not been good on third downs (98th nationally) since backup QB Trevone Boykin replaced injured starter Casey Pachall a few weeks ago.  OU leads the Big 12 in third down defense, and has only given up 12.0 PPG thus far.  Despite the sandwich, we think Oklahoma has found their stride and will not slip at home against a Big 12 foe.  Oklahoma -8.5.

West Virginia at Baylor – WVU posted a nice 30-21 win over Okie State last week in Morgantown.  The game though was more about OSU playing their worst game of the season, turning it over three times and only converting 6-of-20 on 3rd down.  This week all three WVU QBs have some nagging injuries.  The Mountaineers are 0-2 this year on the road including a 37-0 blowout loss at Maryland.  Meanwhile, the Bears are fresh off a bye week.  They have been unstoppable, winning their three games by an average of 62 points.  Baylor has covered the spread in their last 8 games, and might cover this line by the half.  HC Art Briles and the high-flying Bears are the ‘Oregon of the South’.  Baylor -27.5.