December 12, 2018

Hold All Tickets: Week 14 Going Back for Seconds

Turkey FootballWe had another nice showing last week grinding it out with Oklahoma State and Michigan State.  This week – the last week of the regular season for most – typically means a bunch of rivalry games.  Generally speaking those games are good ones to stay away from due to the emotion involved.  Tread lightly.

A few more games than usual have piqued our interest this week so we’ll ‘go back for seconds’ and try to build our bankroll for bowl season.

Last Week:  2-1       Year to Date:  26-19  (57.8%)

Arkansas at LSU – We saw the look on the Razorbacks faces when they walked toward the tunnel last week in War Memorial Stadium.  They had been looking forward for several weeks to that game – a game they thought they could win to break the streak and avoid the SEC West cellar.  Like the fans after the loss, they are ready for this season to end.  We can’t see the Hogs putting up much of a fight here, especially after the Tigers lay their ears back and get after Brandon Allen.  This one is over before it starts.  Better days ahead.  LSU -24.5.

Florida International at Florida Atlantic – Two of the things we are looking for this time of year are 1) teams that are fighting to get bowl eligible, and 2) bad teams that have given up.  We have both here in this contest and think FAU will turn it on and secure their sixth win over the worst offensive team in College Football.  FIU’s lone victory of the year was a one-point win over winless Southern Miss.  FAU -27.5.

Florida State at Florida – We know…stay away from the rivalry games, but we can’t help ourselves.  Florida is in such disarray, we were shocked to see the line this low.  FSU needs to win and in convincing fashion if possible to stay in that BCS Top 2.  Florida is still reeling from last week’s 6-point loss to Georgia Southern.  We think the Seminoles run it up against their in-state rivals, and may go over the total by themselves.  Two bets…Florida State -27.5 and FSU/Florida Over 44.

Fresno State at San Jose State – The Bulldogs are still fighting for that perfect 12-0 season while eyeing a BCS bowl bid.  They are two spots behind Northern Illinois for the highest non-AQ spot, and need to keep the pedal on the floor this week.  San Jose State is 9th nationally in passing (335.8 YPG), and the Bulldogs are 2nd with 399.4 YPG, so the ball will be in the air a lot, which should translate to lots of points.  We like the Bulldogs in a shootout.  Two bets…Fresno State -7 and Fresno/SJSU Over 71.

Baylor at TCU – The Bears are looking to bounce back this week after a disappointing performance in Stilwater last week.  The line in this one looks like an overreaction to that 49-17 trip to the woodshed.  TCU on the other hand has lost four out of their last five including a 33-31 heartbreaker last week in Manhattan.  The loss to Kansas State was their seventh, eliminating them from bowl consideration.  Word is Baylor will get back one or both of their star running backs – Lache Seastrunk (groin) and Glasco Martin (knee), which should help their cause.  Baylor -11.5.

Who are you on this week?