August 18, 2018

Hold All Tickets: Week 5 Still Spinning

Spinning Roller CoasterAnother dismal week for us as backdoor covers cost us wins with Auburn and Virginia Tech. A&M’s crushing of SMU was our only win, but we won’t be in the Aggie camp this week.  😉  Better days ahead as we look to pull out of this spin.

In our friendly competition with Arkansas Fight, Graham continues to leave the door open for us…and we will walk through it at some point. You can see Graham’s Week 5 picks here.

  RazorBloggers Logo Arkansas Fight
Last Week 1-4 4-6
Year to Date 6-13-1 31.6% 17-23-1 42.5%

Here we go.

Colorado at California – After winning only one game in 2013, the young Bears are still learning how to win. Up 18 in the fourth quarter last week at Arizona, the Wildcats rallied and won 49-45 on a hail-mary pass as time expired.  At home this week, Cal and quarterback Jared Goff (890 PaYds, 10TDs) should put it together for a comfortable win over the Buffs.  California -13.

Nevada at San Jose State – Nevada has played an incredible schedule so far facing two Pac-12 teams – beating Washington State by 11 and narrowly losing to Arizona by 7. The Spartans have not been able to run the ball or stop the run in their first three games, so we think Nevada can control both lines of scrimmage and let QB Cody Fajardo do the rest.  Nevada -4.5.

Memphis at Ole Miss – A couple of things are working in Memphis’ favor this week. The Tigers have really scored well this year (44.7 PPG, 13th nationally), and we think they have a good chance to match the Rebels score-for-score.  Memphis hung in there a few weeks ago at UCLA eventually losing 42-35.  Ole Miss on the other hand hosts Alabama next week, and they have to be thinking about the Tide already.  Perfect spot for the Tigers.  Memphis +21.

Kent State at Virginia – After facing three Top 20 teams in the first four weeks, the Cavaliers have a bit of a breather as our old friend Paul Haynes pays a visit. UVA played very physical in a 23-21 win over Louisville and a narrow loss to a tough BYU team (41-33) in Provo.  Kent State (127th nationally in points scored) struggled to score against weak sisters Ohio and South Alabama, so we think this one could get ugly fast.  Virginia -26.5.

Louisiana Tech at Auburn – After a shocking loss to Northwestern (La.) State last week, Louisiana Tech makes the trip to Auburn Saturday. The Tigers are fresh off a sloppy road win at Kansas State – a game they were fortunate to win.  We are looking for a bounce back from LT, and with LSU looming next week for Aubie, we think the Tigers might not have their full attention on the Bulldogs.  Louisiana Tech +33.

Northwestern at Penn State – This is a very interesting matchup that pits Penn State’s #1 ranked rushing defense (49.5 YPG) vs. the Wildcats who rank 106th nationally in rushing at only 115.3 YPG. That is not a receipe that favors Northwestern, especially playing on the road.  We like QB Christian Hackenberg (1,261 PaYds, 4TDs) put up enough points to cover this number.  Penn State -9.5.

Who you got this week?