February 16, 2019

Hold All Tickets: Week 9 Full of Chalk

Coach at ChalkboardWe are ladened with chalk this week as we find all favorites on our card. That is usually a bad sign, but the multitude of underdog winners the last two weeks (straight up and against the spread) seems to have created some value with favorites.  We’ll see.

In our friendly competition with Arkansas Fight, Doc Harper and his ‘Saturday Roulette’ couldn’t do it two weeks in a row as we gained back a little ground. Graham is back this week and you can see his Week 9 picks here.

RazorBloggers Logo Arkansas Fight
Last Week 3-2 2-5-1
Year to Date 17-25-2   40.5% 32-43-3   42.7%

Here we go.

Memphis at SMU – We saw a lot of ‘quit’ in the Mustangs last week as a very weak defensive team in Cincinnati held them 3 points in a 41-3 win. SMU is now LAST the FBS in points scored and LAST in points allowed…yikes!!!  Memphis is off a tough loss to Houston, and should have the revenge factor working as SMU has beaten them the last three years.  Memphis -23.

Texas at Kansas State – We have found our new favorite team (other than the Hogs of course) in Kansas State. The Wildcats won and covered at Norman for the second straight time with a 31-30 heart-stopping win last week.  Just 2 penalties and zero turnovers…that’s how you win on the road.  For Texas, QB Tyrone Swoopes is improving, but we think could struggle in Manhattan…a tough place to play.  Kansas State -9.5.

Ole Miss at LSU – We were stunned to see this line less than a touchdown, even with the Tigers playing at night in Baton Rouge. It smells a bit fishy, but Ole Miss has made believers out of us and we think they can hold LSU in check.  The Rebels have only surrendered three meaningful TDs in seven games.  QB Bo Wallace has been surprisingly safe with the football in SEC games (7TDs vs. 0 Ints)…a good trend.  Ole Miss -3.5.

Ohio State at Penn State – After a slow start, OSU freshman QB J.T. Barrett is growing by leaps and bounds, throwing for 1,615 PaYds and 20TDs so far this year. After an embarrassing loss at home to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes have averaged 56 points in their last four wins.  Penn State on the other hand has lost two straight and is down to just 46 healthy scholarship players.  Penn State’s bad O-line should get embarrassed by a very talented Ohio State defensive line…the strength of their defense.  Ohio State -13.5.

Michigan at Michigan State – Usually we stay away from rivalry games, but we just can’t help ourselves with this one. Michigan State rolled up over 600 yards in total offense last week, and sports a top 10 defense.  Turnover Margin: Michigan is 124th nationally at -13, Michigan State is 3rd nationally at +11.  Think this one could get ugly as the Brady Hoke ship continues to sink.  Michigan State -17.

Mississippi State at Kentucky – After big wins over LSU and Auburn, normally we would expect a ‘letdown performance’ from the Bulldogs. But with a week off to clear their heads last week, we think the MSU train continues to roll over a Kentucky team battered 41-3 by LSU a week ago.  QB Dak Prescott is on pace for a 50+ TD season…that’s FIDDY!!!  Mississippi State -13.5.

South Carolina at Auburn – This is a terrible USC defense – 13th in the SEC and 91st nationally in points allowed – facing one of the top 10 offenses in the country in Auburn who is fresh off a bye. Not a good spot for the Gamecocks.  If you look closely, the  South Carolina 38-35 win over Georgia in Week 3 is the ‘outlier performance’.  Putrid performances against Texas A&M (L 52-28), Vanderbilt (W 48-34) and Kentucky (L 45-38) appear to be the norm.  Gus with an extra week to prepare…Jordan-Hare at night…Sign us up.  Auburn -18.

Rutgers at Nebraska – The Scarlett Knights are on the backside of a two game road trip after getting hammered 56-17 at Ohio State last week. Cornhusker RB Ameer Abdullah has already topped the 1,000-yard rushing mark (1,024) with 14TDs.  Nebraska has been good against the spread this year (6-1), and we think they can run up a big number at home just like OSU did against Rutgers last week.  Nebraska -17.

Who you got this week?