August 18, 2018

Hold All Tickets: Week 11 Down the Stretch

Down the StretchA bit of a mixed bag for us last week as two teams – Kentucky and Arizona – narrowly missed covering by 2 and 3 points respectively as road dogs. Kansas State, Air Force and Oregon all hit…better days ahead as we start down the stretch.

In our friendly, season long competition with Arkansas Fight, Graham posted a winning card last week, leaving us in a virtual dead heat. You can see Graham’s Week 11 picks here.

RazorBloggers Logo Arkansas Fight
Last Week 3-4 5-4
Year to Date 25-32-2   43.9% 39-52-4   42.9%

Here we go.

Alabama at LSU – We went against the Tigers at home, at night, a few weeks back against Ole Miss and took it on the chin. The Tigers have really stepped up their rushing attack the last few games with frosh Leonard Fournette and Terrence Magee.  The tandem has been a great 1-2 punch.  There are some trends at play here.  Alabama is 2-6 against the spread this year, including 0-3 ATS on the road.  LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  We’re smelling some corn dogs here…we’ll take the Tigers to keep this one close on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge.  LSU +7.

Texas A&M at Auburn – After changing quarterbacks last week, we were stunned that A&M struggled like they did against ULM. The Warhawks out gained the Aggies 347-243 as true freshman QB Kyle Allen was only 13-28 for 106 PaYds in his first start.  We can only imagine what Auburn will do to that Aggie defense if they don’t suffer a hangover from their methodical 35-31 win at Ole Miss.  Aubie has a lot to play for.  Auburn -21.

Penn State at Indiana – Since losing their starting QB Nate Sudfeld a few weeks ago, the Hoosiers have been dismal on offense. Backup Zander Diamont has thrown for 35 YARDS in the LAST TWO GAMES – blow out losses to Michigan State and Michigan.  Indiana was outscored 90-27 in those games.  Penn State is tough on defense and ranks 1st nationally (76.1 YPG) in rush defense.  This smells like a shutout so we’ll hold our nose and take the Nittany Lions.  Penn State -5.

Georgia Southern at Texas State – Georgia Southern and their rush happy option attack has been rolling the last three weeks, outscoring their opponents 158-65. The Eagles rank #1 nationally in rush offense at 404.2 YPG.  Texas State has had all kinds of trouble stopping the run this season, ranking 109th in rushing defense.  Not a good matchup for Texas State.  Georgia Southern -11.

Kansas State at TCU – We have been on the K-State bandwagon the last three weeks and see no reason to jump ship now. TCU is coming off an emotional 31-30 last second win at Morgantown, and might be due for a little let down after facing four ranked teams in the last five weeks.  TCU star RB B.J. Catalon (10TDs) was injured (shoulder) late in that West Virginia game last week, has not practiced this week, and is questionable for Saturday.  Kansas State +6.

Ohio State at Michigan State – This line looks a little fishy, but we’re going to bite anyway. When Ohio State faced a good defense two weeks ago at Penn State, the Buckeyes had trouble moving the ball consistanly.  Their 17 points and 243 total yards in regulation, indicates they will have trouble against the tough Sparty defense Saturday.  Michigan State -3.

Who you got this week?