Every year about this time, I like to peruse through the Las Vegas betting lines to get a flavor for what ‘those in the know’ think about the Hogs.
Since it’s a fairly slow time for the sportsbooks, the Futures Bets for the NCAA and NFL roll out during the dog days of summer to whet people’s appetite for football. Of course these are, by and large, sucker bets…but they’re fun to look at.
So for entertainment purposes only, mind you…here’s how one site sees the SEC and Heisman races shaping up in 2007.
Odds to Win Division
| East | Odds | West | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 1 | LSU | 1 |
| Georgia | 5/2 | Auburn | 2 |
| Tennessee | 3 | Arkansas | 5/2 |
| South Carolina | 4 | Alabama | 3 |
| Kentucky | 5 | Ole Miss | 10 |
| Vanderbilt | 20 | Mississippi State | 17 |
Odds to Win Overall Championship
| Team | SEC Championship | BCS Championship |
|---|---|---|
| LSU | 6/5 | 7 |
| Florida | 2 | 7 |
| Georgia | 9/2 | 20 |
| Auburn | 11/2 | 18 |
| Tennessee | 11/2 | 22 |
| Arkansas | 11/2 | 40 |
| Alabama | 8 | 30 |
| South Carolina | 8 | - |
| Kentucky | 14 | - |
| Ole Miss | 40 | - |
| Mississippi State | 80 | - |
| Vanderbilt | 90 | - |
Odds to Win Heisman Trophy
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brian Brohm | 3 |
| Darren McFadden | 7/2 |
| John David Booty | 4 |
| Steve Slaton | 9/2 |
| Colt Brennan | 11/2 |
| Ray Rice | 7 |
A couple of notes after reviewing this:
- Auburn is getting a lot more love from the gamblers than the media is giving them. I have this feeling that Tommy T. is sandbagging a bit and, if Brandon Cox improves at quarterback, that they will be better than most think.
- Kentucky is not going to be a pushover this year. The gamblers are giving them their due respect in the odds.
- Look at Arkansas’ odds to win the BCS Championship…lower than any of their peers – lower even than Alabama. Why? Non-conference schedule most likely. Even if we did run the table in 2007, with the four ‘cupcakes’ on the schedule, we would most likely finish like Auburn did in 2004 when they got shutout despite going undefeated.
- McFadden’s got plenty of company in the race for the Heisman. If USC performs like everyone expects, John David Booty will be getting a lot of attention and praise from ABC, who carries the PAC-10 games. Remember Woodson over Manning?
We’ll be back soon with a series of posts detailing our prognostications for the 2007 season. In the meantime, feel free to be thinking about your predictions and we’ll get together later this week to compare and discuss.
Florida is loaded.
Even if we have the best year possible, Heisman, passing, win the West, getting past those guys will be as tough as last year. Although, Tebo is an untested comodity. Sophomore QBs have a tendancy to look very good and then very bad. They should be fun to watch.
Auburn is really reloading this year. It is hard to know what to expect there.
Kentucky is in the same spot as Vandy the last couple of years. They need breaks and early wins to build momentum. They are a dangerous game just because they are early. Having them in Fayetteville should help although we all remember Vandy early in 05.
Our kids are talking National Title. I don't know what to make of that from a team that didn't finish well against the top 10. Whistling past the grave yard? response to the soap opera? I think just getting the O-line in order and putting together a 3rd down passing game well enough to beat Auburn, LSU, and Tenn. would be huge.
We all loved last year until the collapse but we should not be decieved to into thinking that the world has suddenly turned upside down. The odds makers certainly don't. I think they have it about right.
We have some strength at the skill positions and some pretty big holes at QB, reciever, CB, and DL. Its nothing other teams don't face but, we are not USC or Florida by a long, long stretch.
While Las Vegas has a long history of reflecting reality better than any of the local sports shows, or even the polls, it should be remembered that the gambling establishment is striving to get a 50/50 split on bets——-from the fans, who know less than anyone!
That said, I think we will be better than last year. I know it gets tiresome for some to hear it, but I cannot remember any team losing four games to nothing but top ten teams, much less top five teams. That is really an amazing stat.