After watching numerous NCAA Tournament games over the past four days, I’ve come to a very basic conclusion: If the Hogs don’t get taller, longer and wider, they are not going to get any better.
Having said that, the great thing about college basketball is that one class can make a huge difference in the hands of an able coach. The Hogs should have more length at guard next year and more quickness on defense.
The areas that absolutely killed this year’s team were giving up second chance points, turnovers per possession and perimeter defense. Put another way: rebounding, a 5-foot, 11-inch “shoot first, pass…nah” point guard, and a 6-foot shooting guard were big issues.
An interesting stat: Courtney Fortson led the nation in percentage of possessions ended for his team. Fortson ended 36% of Razorback possessions while he was on the floor with either a made or missed shot, free throw or turnover. If he continues to own that many possessions…the Hogs will continue to appear to have a “stand around” offense.
The roles of Rotnei Clarke and Fortson (assuming he returns) could very well change dramatically next year with the addition of four new guards. I doubt either of them are happy thinking about that prospect.
However, the key player supposedly needed to pull things together is Ricardo Ratliffe, 6-9, 238, of Central Florida Community College. Other than the fact that I’ve never seen a junior college player step in and be a “key player,” I could get pretty excited if Ricardo decides to come to Arkansas. But it will take more than just him coming in. The Hogs must have stronger players in the middle.
And then there’s the “able coach” thing. There’s a whole school of thought out there that John Pelphrey is just not a very good basketball coach. Certainly the product on the floor to date has done little to convince anyone that he is an excellent coach. Will this change with improved talent? Will the Hogs really have improved talent next year?
Even if they do, next year can’t help but be another reboot. There’s a number of new players to integrate into the…ahem…system. I can’t see that going very well.
If Jeff Long’s measuring stick next year for Coach Pelphrey is making the NCAA Tournament, then he should’ve fired him last week. This program is realistically at least two years away from competing at that level.
I enjoy seeing smaller and quicker dudes running circles around people. But this post is right on — we HAVE to get taller if we want to compete. I hope next year isn't another reboot, but it has the makings of one. Delvon, Waithe, get in the gym!!!
I think you made some valid points HogBlogger. The most glaring stat would have to be the dominance of the ball by Courtney Fortson.
I've often wondered just how coachable this kid is, but when I see 2 Srs. making the kind of on court decisions they made this past season, I wonder if this only contrbutes to this teams lack of identity and a need for CF to take over with even more control.
Say what you want about Clarke, but until we have a solid presence inside with our big men, defenses won't collapse inside and will continue to focus on the preimeter D and force our short guards to make untimely shots and force CF to make even more bad decisions.
Did you notice the lack of comraderie between Washington and and the rest of the players? I sure did. Same for Welsh. Absolutely no leadership. None.
I'm hoping this young man decides to help change all that. He represents that wider body you were referring to in your post.
http://arkansas.scout.com/2/951175.html
His old profile listed him as 6'9", 220 lbs., but the updated version is now 240. He's very strong. Similar to how Corliss was.
I've heard rumor he was closer to 6'8", but at 240lbs., he's a much stronger, physical and versitile player than M. Washington.
The combination of his immediate starting role with his very good friend inside, (M. Powell) will take care of both the comraderie and leadership issues. It will also free up the outside shooting of Clarke more often.
The very deep guard rotation CJP will have, will give both CF and Rot the necessary breathers they'll need for late game production.
It'll also force opposing teams to play harder for longer periods of time, making opposing coaches defensive scheems harder, force them to make adjustments with substitutions, and allow our own defense to play more physical.
The more bodies you have to throw around, the more fouls you can afford to give up. Of course that doesn't help with putting the opposing team in early one and one FT situations, but hey, it's still an improvement.
Also, this is another link of interest for the 2011 season. This kid, along with a couple of others on the Hog's radar, represents the taller and longer players you were mentioning.
http://arkansas.scout.com/2/955215.html
Adding just one of those kids to the mix would surely make us better.
We already have a taller and longer M. Waithe coming in pretty soon. The more, the merrier.
We have no where else to go but up guys. I seriously doubt CJP looks like the bad coach next season some have painted him as.
Gonzo – I agree with you other than I'm going to have to see a lot more out of the coaching to feel good about it.
"Other than the fact that I’ve never seen a junior college player step in and be a “key player,”…"
*cough SONNY WEEMS cough*
Sonny Weems struggled his first year. He really didn't get it going until the SEC Tournament in year 2.
Didn't say he was a great player, just that he was a key player (a quick look at the stats shows he was 2nd in minutes, 2nd in ppg, 2nd in rpg during his 1st year here).
On topic, Ratliffe would certainly help this team, but getting him is a crapshoot, considering the list of his other suitors.
1. Skywalker – Sonny Weems DID NOT make an immediate impact. It took him a year and he still never really lived up to his hype.
2. Gonzohog- I like your optimism and I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but Im not sold on Ky Madden. He seems like another project. Search google for a few stories on some of his antics lately.
GO HOGS!!
Good article here from Dudley on Madden:
http://arkansas.scout.com/2/955215.html
Not making excuses for the kid but it's good to see him take responsibility for poor sportsmanship after a tough, last-second loss.
"Other than the fact that I’ve never seen a junior college player step in and be a “key player,”…”
Larry Johnson?
Darrell Walker
Mitch Richmond
I was thinking "for the Razorbacks."
Larry Johnson had a great cast around him. Plus, he had an exceptional body for a college player. Those types go pro quickly now.
Interesting points, HogBlogger. The stat about Fortson absolutely floors me. I think the fans have every right in questioning CJP's ability to coach, judging by the play we've seen out of the team the past couple of years. Having said that, it's really tough to put a consistent product on the court when you have sooo much player turnover and suspensions. Who's fault that is can, of course, be debated. So, I'm going to give CJP the benefit of the doubt through the end of next year.
I honestly think we've got a chance to be a pretty good team next year, especially if we get Ratliffe. Most of those areas of glaring need mentioned above will be addressed, I think, both by the incoming recruits and by (hopefully) having a full roster to begin the year, rather than mass-suspensions and injury. The obvious key (and this is on Pelphrey) is for the team to take better care of the ball and make better decisions with it, especially Fortson. I'm sure everyone who followed Razorback basketball in recent years have lost count of how many times we've thrown our hands in the air and said "What on earth are you doing!". The Hogs will have a full roster with the talent needed to run Coach Pel's "system" (whatever that may be), so if we get more of the same next year, he'll be out of excuses, and most likely, out of a job.
I think Pel was a bit hand-cuffed in a Catch-22 this season. Fortson definitely gave us the best chance to win. But that stat, while alarming, isn't surprising. And therein lies the issue — do you go with your best chance or do you bench him for long periods of time until he runs the offense you've implemented?
Fortson is definitely talented. But, he has to make much better decisions before he's able to put the team on his back against the stronger teams in the SEC and the rest of the country. And standing at 5'10", that makes that decision-making process even more crucial to our team's success.
I agree Seth. It would be interesting to see how that 36% trended over the course of the year. I recall in the early games where Fortson returned, he truly gutted out the wins for us and took the team on his back. Our opponents' strategy was to glue someone on Clarke and let Fortson or someone else beat them. It worked for a few games.
As Powell emerged over the season, it feels like Fortson's plays with the ball decreased, but can't be sure.
If we can have more players step up, like Powell, there is less of a need for a one man show.
You ride your best option to win. Sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't. With more experience coming back next year, we should see some playmakers other than Fortson emerge – it will be interesting to see what Pel does with it. I'm confident he can make something good happen.
It would be nice to recognize some of the positives Fortson brought this season too. We wouldn't have won 7 SEC games without him. The kid was near the top of the league in scoring and was one of a few players in the country that had a high average in scoring, rebounding, and assists. The kid is a player. We need him back next year.
soup,
That's a good take on Fortson. I do believe CJP was handcuffed a bit with him. Nobles shows potential, but still way too young to be a leader. He'll be better next season.
I don't believe it's a given that M. Wade and R. Scott are locks for lot's of immediate playing time next season, but we'll see. They'll still have to make the transition to div.1 college basketball/life, but I do believe the perimeter depth and practice competition they'll bring to the team will help improve us quite a bit next season, much like the addition of Nobles and Farmer did for us this season, and we still don't know what Iowa transfer Jeff Peterson is going to bring to the table.
The difference is, those kids could be even much better and progress even quiker on the court.
M. Waithe will make us bigger on the wing, and could give us another weapon for opposing defenses to focus on besides R. Clarke. Also, he's already jumping on board with the recruitment of Ricardo Ratliffe.
I think Ratliffe puts us a in aposition to make a serious jump talent-wise.
If opposing defenses have to focus on the penetration abilities of C. Fortson, the 3-point shooting abilities of both R. Clarke AND M. Waithe, and the inside presence of not only M. Powell, but possibly the most talented big man since Corliss Williamson, (R.R.) then we'll definately be a much better team next season.
I know that sounds like a lot of ifs, but hey, the possibilities are there guys.
Kentucky will lose their freshmen to the NBA. I'm thinking SEC Titles, both regular season and tournament and no less than sweet sixteen. It is hard to think Final Four with so little experience.
Hey HB, where did you find that stat about Fortson? I'm having trouble locating it online.
I am always impressed when a team with a good coach and average players beats a team with an average coach and good players. I give you Eddie Sutton's early years at Arkansas as one example. Try to imagine how this season might have gone for the Hogs if Eddie (or someone with his skill) had been HC. If the score is tight inside 5 minutes to go, I would bet on Eddie's team every time.
Lets talk about defense man.
We are talking about how we can get to being an average team on offense. I still don't see any hope for our defense. Middle of the pack is all you can expect next year. If the west improves a great deal, maybe not even there.
We are going to be having these same conversations next year this time.
CF had success early because they were calling fouls for him when he initiated contact. As soon as he quit getting those calls, we started losing and it didn't stop.
We don't have a point guard and we don't have a center and what is left doesn't play good defense.
Look into the crystal ball, not the wishing well.
Wake up people!
Blah…blah…blah!!!
The season is OVER… give it a rest. We aren't going to make any changes on coaching beyond what we have already. Let's get behind our remaining players. Let's recruit the best players that we can for next year. Let's get healthy!!! Let's grow our existing players and continue to show them how to act and live their lives so that when we begin in the fall, we have a full healthy roster.
If we are able to do all of this, I'm guessing that we will see real progress next year. If not, I'm ok with having this discussion.
I think they are finished growing. Do you have something to make them taller?
Maybe they should go to a monestary they cover most of the items you mentioned.
Rah Rah Rah
I really liked the Jim Harris interview over on Expats. Jim knows his stuff. He was kind of pushing the company line but at least he acknowledged the mess we are in.
I do think, even if he is right, that we are lost in a bad division of a football league, that you can put a well coached team on the floor and build a 'team' that you can root for and be proud of. I don't see why you would do anything less (Ole Miss used to beat us regularly with Arkansas kids.)
No one can bring themselves to say the words, "Arkansas can't get back to the top in the Western Division of the SEC." Some things are best left unsaid. If that is the case, then eventually, after years of complaining and dropping ticket sales, it will all even out.
Very Sad.
Our program was in regression mode even before Nolan left. Everyone figured out his coaching style and how to play against it after his '94 team won the NC game. We were never the same again, and regressed further throughout his remaining tenure.
Stan Heath was a slow down, half-court style coach, who only ran when needed. (a Tom Izzu puple) The only problem with that is he never recruited a PG good enough to fit that style of play and his teams were front-court heavey every season. (Size and depth at the guard positions are essential)
Ronnie Brewer was here for 3 years, but his talents would have been better used as a swingman had Stan been able to recruit a True PG.
Now we have CJP, and his only real, front-court heavey experience was gone after his very first season. He started rebuilding last year, not 2 years ago. He should be able to recieve more leway than that from Razorback fans, and be able to continue bringing in more capable athletes to actually instill a system that works.
He's been ambushed with early disiplinary issues with the young recruits, but he's tackling these issues with class and integrity, but isn't getting the credit he deserves for doing that.
Owasso is right. The basketball season is over. Jeff Long is keeping CJP for at least one more season for all the right reasons. Too bad a lot of fans can't see or accept that. What a shame.
I think alot revolved around those six scholarships. Stan had actually earned a sixth year. But, if they had given it to him that would have really meant a seventh and eighth as well because of those six scholarships. It would not have been fair to him or the kids to fire him after recruiting half of a new team. The judgment was made that he could not take it to a higher level and Gillespie should be brought in to build with those six scholarships. Of course the great irony is that we have dropped so far we can't get back to that level. And, you have to wonder what Stan would have done with those scholarships.
Stan inherited a huge mess and was given a lot of leaway to put it all back together. He also had the huge break of having Brewer and Weems in the pipeline. Pelphry inherited an NCAA tournament team and the expectations that actually belonged to Gillespie or a more experienced coach.
That would have been a good time for the PR machine to drop expectations but, of course that is not the way to sell tickets or promote recruiting. Expectations make such a huge difference in perception.
Stan was the guy who created the six scholarship mess and it did in both he and Pelphry. If the huggers are right, maybe he will right the ship next year. Harris thinks he can win the west and go to the dance. That should get him another year. And, you may be right, he may deserve two. It's hard to lose half a team and survive. It was a tough break, a bad spot for a learning experience. He might survive.