Every year about this time, it’s always interesting to peruse through the Las Vegas betting lines to get a flavor for what the ‘wise guys’ think about the Hogs.
Since it’s a fairly slow time for the sportsbooks, the futures bets for the NCAA and NFL roll out during the dog days of summer to whet people’s appetite for football. Of course these are, by and large, sucker bets. But they’re still fun to check out.
So — for entertainment purposes only, mind you — here’s how one book sees the SEC, BCS and Heisman races shaping up in 2010.
| SEC Divisional Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Western | Odds | Eastern | Odds |
| Alabama | 1/2 | Florida | 1 |
| Arkansas | 3 | South Carolina | 3 |
| Auburn | 5 | Georgia | 3 |
| LSU | 5 | Tennessee | 4 |
| Mississippi State | 12 | Kentucky | 10 |
| Ole Miss | 15 | Vanderbilt | 25 |
| SEC Overall and BCS Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | SEC Overall | BCS Champions |
| Alabama | 1 | 9/2 |
| Florida | 5/2 | 8 |
| Auburn | 11/2 | 45 |
| Georgia | 13/2 | 35 |
| Arkansas | 8 | 35 |
| South Carolina | 8 | 80 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 80 |
| LSU | 8 | 30 |
| Kentucky | 30 | 300 |
| Ole Miss | 35 | 100 |
| Mississippi St. | 50 | 200 |
| Vanderbilt | 100 | 250 |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player Name | Position | Team | Odds |
| Mark Ingram | Running Back | Alabama | 7/2 |
| Terrelle Pryor | Quarterback | Ohio State | 5 |
| Jake Lockner | Quarterback | Washington | 8 |
| Ryan Mallett | Quarterback | Arkansas | 10 |
| Jacory Harris | Quarterback | Miami, Fla. | 12 |
| Case Keenum | Quarterback | Houston | 14 |
| Kellen Moore | Quarterback | Boise State | 15 |
| Andrew Luck | Quarterback | Stanford | 16 |
A few observations after digesting these:
- Arkansas’ odds to win the West are actually better than Auburn’s despite Auburn having lower odds to win the SEC outright. The likely reason is the Hogs game with Alabama is at home, while the Tigers travel to Tuscaloosa to face the Tide.
- South Carolina is getting more love than you would think. The Gamecocks are 3-1 to win the East — the same as Georgia, who they play at home early in the season (September 11th).
- Tennessee is getting more consideration by this book than they deserve. New coach, new systems, new quarterback, limited depth should equate to much lower odds than 4-1 (SEC East) and 8-1 (SEC Overall).
- For the Heisman, Ingram and Pryor will be on teams that will have a lot of success. For Mallett to be a legit contender, the Hogs have to win at least 10 games to stay in the national spotlight.
How in the world did Jacory Harris become a Heismon contender? He's not one lick better than Jordan Jefferson of LSU.
The difference is Jefferson plays against very tough SEC defenses. Harris plays in the ACC and still throws an abundance of INTs. Need I say more?
Gonzo: I think that you're on target with Harris and with Jefferson as well. I think that it's odd that the betting is not taking into consideration that the Heisman is not favoring repeats. Based on this putting Ingram in front seems unrealistic even if Bama wins the National Championship. If anyone of the aforementioned QBs other than Harris and Jefferson has a bangup year then they will get it (at this point Harris and Jefferson are fillers). I don't see Ingram doing as well this year because he will be a marked man for the SEC defenses. I think that Sabin is too smart to overuse Ingram just so he can get another Heisman, unlike another SEC coach we know who tried to do something similar(HDN). Right now, if you had to bet win, place or show (the latter two being the best bets)the odds should favor Pryor. Not only is he an outstanding talent but he will have the weight of the Big Ten PR machine behind him. And OSU will be at the top of the BT (Or so the smart money says). Mallet's problem is that the Midwestern and Eastern Heisman voters may not want to give it to another SEC player. Unfortunately, in case of a tie, the Big Ten gets it. (Who said life was fair or that Heisman voters were unbiased) Ingram is from the Midwest (Michigan) and the other choices last year for the Heismaners were, Texas (curses, Bush country) or Florida (double curses – a Christian). For what it's worth my choices last year, in order, were MCCoy,the Stanford RB, Tebow, then Ingram. Let's see, all the records that Tebow and McCoy broke and the RB leading the nation in rushing didn't count?