After reading HogBlogger’s post earlier this week, I felt like diving a bit deeper into how the Razorbacks have performed in the past compared to their preseason expectations.
As Razorback football fans, we have a love/hate relationship when it comes to expectations. Having high expectations has always seemed to be akin to the “SI cover jinx” or the “Corso Curse.” Over the years, there have been few examples of Arkansas football teams that have matched their lofty expectations. More often than not, those seasons ended in fan disappointment, meltdown or worse.
1978: Before the season, Sports Illustrated ranked Arkansas #1. But the Hogs suffered two midseason defeats and settled for only a share of the Southwest Conference title, finishing 9-2-1 after a tie with UCLA in the Fiesta Bowl.
1987: The ’87 Razorbacks were SWC favorites but a last play defeat to Texas in Little Rock led to a disappointing finish. The Hogs won nine games, but ended the campaign with a Liberty Bowl loss to Georgia.
But in years when expectations have been low and the Hogs have played the role of the underdog, they’ve often produced results that far exceeded fan expectations.
1995: Coming off of a 4-7 finish the previous year, the Razorbacks earned their first-ever Western Division title in the SEC. The Hogs lost to #2 Florida in the SEC Championship game, 34-3.
1998: In Houston Nutt’s first year at Arkansas, having inherited a team with back-to-back 4-7 seasons, the Razorbacks were unbeaten at 8-0 heading into Knoxville to play Tennessee. After the now infamous Clint Stoerner fumble, the Hogs would lose the following week to Mississippi State and finish the season 9-3 after a loss to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
2006: The Razorbacks got off to a 10-1 start, having gone 4-7 the year before. As the season progressed, fans and pundits began to place the Hogs right in the middle of that year’s BCS conversations. However, just as expectations began to rise, the Hogs ended the season with losses to LSU, Florida and Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl to finish 10-4.
1977: Before the season, Arkansas was picked to finish no higher than fifth in the SWC. But with Ron Calcagni at quarterback and Ben Cowins rushing for over 1,000 yards, the Razorback offense averaged 33 points a game. While the Hogs finished second in the SWC with a 10-1 record, they did earn their first-ever spot in the Orange Bowl opposite #2 Oklahoma.
After top-ranked Texas was defeated by Notre Dame earlier in the day, the entire focus of the nation was on the Sooners’ chance to win the Orange Bowl and the national championship.
Most figured that was a foregone conclusion since Lou Holtz had suspended his top two running backs and leading receiver for disciplinary reasons. But the suspensions didn’t matter, and the Hogs stunned the Sooners, 31-6. That game still ranks as one of the all-time favorites among Razorback fans.
2010: So here we are ready to start the season and the Razorbacks are picked as a contender to win the SEC West, with a quarterback on just about every list of potential Heisman candidates. It’s hard as fans not to have high expectations for this season.
Fortunately, Bobby Petrino is no stranger when it comes to expectations. At Louisville, he finished the 2004 season 11-1 and ranked #6. In 2005, his team finished 9-3 and followed that up in 2006 with an Orange Bowl victory, a 12-1 record and a #5 ranking.
“When you have high expectations, it means that you played good football at the end of the year last year and you have a lot of returning players coming back,” Petrino said. “To me, that’s what the start of the season is all about.”
So will this season be different than other high expectation years? Or will this be the year that Razorback fans remember as the season where the Hogs put it all together to do something truly magical?
I think we can live up to the hype this year. In the recent past, we have been very fortunate to have some incredible athletes that were able to carry our team to some nice records. We embraced the underdog role, and over-performed.
Now… It's completely different. It's business time. We truly have a "system" in place. We aren't dependent on one super star to carry us and a motivational speech before the game. We take our preparation week – and see how is the best way to apply our system to this specific opponent to give us the best chance to win. We plan our work, then work our plan. We make smart adjustments during the game. The players know their roles. They feel confident in the system and it shows in their faces and on the field. They believe in their coach, in their teammates and in their plan of attack.
I feel much more confident in our team now more than ever. It's not a "what team is going to show up this week". They look strong, they look prepared, and they look like a smarter football team – if that makes any sense. Last year Mallet did come out a little anxious and firey, but I bet he has more control this year. I do like it when he is pumping up the team on the sidelines – so I don't want him to lose any of his fire – just control the arm and head.
I may be disappointed this year, but I am going into this season ready to have some fun, score some touchdowns and win the games. I am tired of being a second tier SEC team. This year is the year we step up and establish ourselves as a leader. The time is right. We have the staff and depth to back it up again next year. 2010 is the year we came back!
Wooooooooooooooo Pig Sooie
You left out 2003 and of course, 1969. It is impossible for me to separate Arkansas' 'poor me' mentality from Frank Broyles and 1969. Prior to that day, Frank Broyles was the hot young coach known for hiring the hottest young assistants. He and Wilson Matthews ran a successful program built on high expectations. You old guys will remember how quickly he changed to rely on the pooch punt and the draw play. Playing not to lose is a mentality. Nutt finally became his greatest disciple but that was only the final chapter of meddlin' with Arkansas' coaches and philosophy. He probably should have been 'honorably retired' the day he fired Lou Holtz but, certainly the day after Hatfield left for Clemson without so much as a trip to South Carolina.
I remember very well watching the last minutes of the 1998 Tennessee game and thinking what a shock it would be to see Arkansas on CBS instead of Jefferson Pilot the next week after beating Fulmer and Co. to go 9-0. Arkansas fans were completely unprepared for success. That is no longer the case. The one thing that you can give Nutty credit for and, ironically, the thing that got him fired, was that Arkansas fans believe again. Stoerner and Lucas, Matt Jones and Darren McFadden, have shown Arkansas fans that we can belong in the SEC. Petrino's style but, mostly his recruiting, HAS taken us to the next level. If not this year, then next year or the next, Arkansas will play in Atlanta with a shot at the National Title.
That is all you can ask. If we don't win, then we didn't win. But, the hard luck, crash and burn days are over. Nutty is gone. Frank and his clever excuses will never return. It is our turn again. You have to hire winners. When a coach or an AD takes his eye off the prize (are you listening Jeff Long and John Pelphry) it is time for him to go. Sure we expect more than that but, we can never accept less.
Time to drop the Poor Me.
HogBaller, I couldn't agree more. With a coach now that embraces high expectations, instead of one that tries to put a damper on them, anything is possible.
I started to make a comment, then I looked at the depth and length and perfection of the previous posts and thought better of it. Tee it up!
I should have editted.
The business-like attitude, focus and confidence of CBP, will be reflected throughout the season by this team. This can only lead to good things.
I believe that this is going to be a very good team. We have the ability to win every game. But as you know, in the SEC, there is enough talent and coaching that any team can win on any given Saturday. Last year, Alabama was lucky a couple of times. Remember that Tennessee game, for example. So even though Arkansas has the talent and experience to win the SEC, they will also have to get a few breaks to go their way in order to be the champion. Even if it doesn't happen this year, the foundation has been set. This year will be the first of many that we will be a top tier team in the SEC.